How Propheta AI Works: Our Signal Generation Process

Propheta's AI Signal Engine

Our proprietary AI system identifies mispriced contracts across all Kalshi and Polymarket markets.

The Process

1. Market Scanning

Every minute, we scan all active Kalshi and Polymarket contracts for potential opportunities.

2. Multi-Factor Analysis

For each contract, we analyze:

• •Current market price vs fair value
• •Historical settlement patterns
• •Relevant external data
• •Market microstructure (bid/ask, volume)

3. Probability Estimation

Our ensemble model estimates the "true" probability of each outcome, independent of market price.

4. Edge Calculation

Edge = AI Probability - Market Price

We only surface signals with significant positive edge.

5. Confidence Scoring

Based on:

• •Model agreement across multiple algorithms
• •Data quality and availability
• •Historical accuracy in similar situations

What Makes Us Different

• •**Platform-specific**: Built specifically for Kalshi and Polymarket event contracts
• •**Real-time**: Signals update as conditions change
• •**Explainable**: We show our reasoning, not just a number
• •**Pay-for-performance**: You only pay if you win

Track Record

We continuously measure and report our signal accuracy. Our goal: help you win more than you lose.